Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions

Dotan Sagi

Reading the paper written by J. Scott Armstrong called "Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions."

In it, Armstrong demonstrates the value of role-playing through the example of a pharmaceutical company predicting its response to a product recall. Role-playing led to a 76% accuracy rate in predicting the company's real response, while using a group of 65 experts (primarily economists) led to a 36% accuracy rate.

Learning how decision-makers will behave and react during complex decision-making processes can only be attained by mapping their interactions with one another.

When preparing for crises in today’s world, Table Top Exercises that do not include decision-making interactions are inadequate. Moreover, any system or methodology that lacks the ability to analyze these interactions is a nonstarter.

Cognitive computing provides the tools to understand individuals’ actions and the underlying reasons that drive their behaviors. Accurate prediction of results can only be achieved once this is understood.

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